this weird?

[seadog]

I looked through my flopped sets and discovered something that may be or may not be weird.

When I flop a set, the flop is 2 tone,(2 suited)56%, this cant be right?
I checked through 4 different poker sites and all showed same thing.
Rainbow flop 37%
2 Tone 56% Am I missing a filter??
mono 8%

All help appreciated.

[kraada]

I don't think so - two tone flops are the most common kind of flops there are. Let's do some math to figure out exactly how common they should be. Let's also ignore your hole cards for the moment - they will play a small role, but it'll be easier to do the math without worrying about it.

There are three cards in the flop, and the first always has some suit Let's call the first suit X.

The second card is either suit X or a different suit - call it suit Y. The board comes out XX_ 12/51 times - after the first card is dealt there are 51 cards remaining of which 12 are suit X.

The board comes out XY_ the other 39/51 times.

Now to add the river:

On the XX_ board, the river has an 11/50 chance of being X and 39/50 of being Y. Since an XX_ board comes up 12/51 times we can multiply these to get overall totals:

XXX: 12/51 * 11/50 = 132/2550 = 5.176%
XXY: 12/51 * 39/50 = 468 /2550 = 18.353%

On to the XY_ boards:

Given an XY_ board, XYX occurs 11/50 and XYY also occurs 11/50. XYZ occurs the other 28/50.

Getting totals:

XYX: 39/51 * 11/50 = 429 / 2550 = 16.824%
XYY: 39/51 * 11/50 = 429 / 2550 = 16.824%
XYZ: 39/51 * 28/50 = 1092 / 2550 = 42.824%

So totaling up the types:
Monotone = 5.176%
Two-tone = 52.001%
Rainbow = 42.824%

However, this does not take into account that you have two known cards that are of different suits. This will change the values slightly, plus you are looking at an actual sample which is always going to deviate from the ideals a little. You didn't say how big your sample was here - on a smallish sample +/- 4% does not seem that strange.

One other caveat: We know your cards but we don't know your opponents' cards who are seeing the flop with you. That will also affect the general flop texture overall. If your opponents tend to play suited cards, that will skew things a little - exactly how much would require a bunch more math so I'll leave that to you if you're curious.

But in short, those results seem within reasonable bounds given the expected results.

[seadog]

Tx krata, sorry for the late bump, was MIA for a while. The flopped set report tells me
flopping set are in red except for 2 of the pairs.


How would I(you) interpret this? The bell curve shows sets between normal and unlucky.
How would one make adjustments with this info??? I've reduced set mining completely with hands lower then 88.
Not sure how to adjust to ensure I'm not wasting money and not maximizing...

TX in advance.


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[kraada]

If you're losing money with the low pocket pairs and hitting sets as often as expected, reducing the number of times you play them seems a reasonable adjustment to make. Either that, or try playing them differently when you don't hit your set . . . these can be profitable hands in my experience.

[seadog]

How does PT color code?
Everything is in red yet flop set ratio is within norm????

[WhiteRider]

I would have expected it to be coloured by whether you're winning or losing with each pair, and I'm not sure why it isn't although the report could be configured to colour by a different method.
Please export your report and attach it to a Support Ticket with a link to this thread so that we can investigate.

[seadog]

hope i dit it right tx