all in adj question

Experiencing technical difficulties? Think you've found a problem with PokerTracker 3? Report it here.

Moderator: Moderators

all in adj question

Postby seadog » Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:16 pm

I've filtered my PF all-ins that have 79%-82% equity to see how I have been running
over all 6 sites, 1.8 million hands. It's says I'm 26 buy-ins below expectation. However when I calculate times lost
I'm losing 22% of the time, how is that I am running at expectation mathematically but way below expectation
financially???
When I filter present site I'm playing and it shows that I'm losing 20%, great, but down 4 buy-ins, this is over just
202 all-ins, will this EV rise even though I'm not losing mathematically??
seadog
 
Posts: 90
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:12 am

Re: all in adj question

Postby kraada » Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:32 pm

You can be below expectation in money but on expectation in wins when you happen to win the smaller pots and lose the bigger pots.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. You cannot presume because you ran bad before you will later run good -- for more on this, please see this wikipedia article.
kraada
Moderator
 
Posts: 54431
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:32 am
Location: NY

Re: all in adj question

Postby seadog » Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:58 pm

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. You cannot presume because you ran bad before you will later run good -- for more on this, please see this wikipedia article.[/quote]

I filtered all hands with 80bbs+ contributed and I'm 1000bbs below EV. I'd expect it to be closer then 10 buy-ins.
Filtered less then 40bbs and that showed 0EV(-20bbs). Understand my confusion?

The ones that run bad can run bad for a lifetime and vice versa, well known fact.

So I can sassume I'm one of the" not so lucky" types and PT4 confirms this if math used is accurate.
Being down 26 buy-ins below EV over 4 years isn't much, but tells me to stick to the micros and see
if luck fatctor switches before attepting to go back to the 200$. If never, then I'll always play
micros as it's just a past time for me. Not a dreamer,
seadog
 
Posts: 90
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 12:12 am

Re: all in adj question

Postby kraada » Sun Nov 24, 2013 10:35 am

There is no such thing as a "not so lucky type" either -- because you haven't run well in big pots means absolutely nothing when it comes to the future.
kraada
Moderator
 
Posts: 54431
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2008 2:32 am
Location: NY


Return to Technical Support / Bug Reports [Read Only]

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 43 guests

cron