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all in adj question

PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:16 pm
by seadog
I've filtered my PF all-ins that have 79%-82% equity to see how I have been running
over all 6 sites, 1.8 million hands. It's says I'm 26 buy-ins below expectation. However when I calculate times lost
I'm losing 22% of the time, how is that I am running at expectation mathematically but way below expectation
financially???
When I filter present site I'm playing and it shows that I'm losing 20%, great, but down 4 buy-ins, this is over just
202 all-ins, will this EV rise even though I'm not losing mathematically??

Re: all in adj question

PostPosted: Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:32 pm
by kraada
You can be below expectation in money but on expectation in wins when you happen to win the smaller pots and lose the bigger pots.

Past performance is not a predictor of future results. You cannot presume because you ran bad before you will later run good -- for more on this, please see this wikipedia article.

Re: all in adj question

PostPosted: Sat Nov 23, 2013 2:58 pm
by seadog
Past performance is not a predictor of future results. You cannot presume because you ran bad before you will later run good -- for more on this, please see this wikipedia article.[/quote]

I filtered all hands with 80bbs+ contributed and I'm 1000bbs below EV. I'd expect it to be closer then 10 buy-ins.
Filtered less then 40bbs and that showed 0EV(-20bbs). Understand my confusion?

The ones that run bad can run bad for a lifetime and vice versa, well known fact.

So I can sassume I'm one of the" not so lucky" types and PT4 confirms this if math used is accurate.
Being down 26 buy-ins below EV over 4 years isn't much, but tells me to stick to the micros and see
if luck fatctor switches before attepting to go back to the 200$. If never, then I'll always play
micros as it's just a past time for me. Not a dreamer,

Re: all in adj question

PostPosted: Sun Nov 24, 2013 10:35 am
by kraada
There is no such thing as a "not so lucky type" either -- because you haven't run well in big pots means absolutely nothing when it comes to the future.

highfalutin