Question for the Graph Allin Performance EV

[Dreamlike2]

Hi, when I play on microstake I get a strang graph of Expecepte/Actuall Money on Allin Performance.

It was 1600 hands and a lot of showdowns and I really don't know why the green line is so under the blue meanwhile all other graphs from other pokerplayers it is about the same height.

What is the reason? Am I playing so badly that I always lose on river after a push when the other has 2-4 outs?

What can someoone do to avoid such thing?

[kraada]

It just means you're running badly. When you get into spots when you're all in, you haven't been winning as much as expected.

You should note, though, that there are a few known bugs with this graph that can cause your results to be slightly underreported.

Either way there's nothing you can do to influence this graph (unless you believe in animal sacrifices); it's just how things turn out once you're all in. But if you're still beating the game even running this poorly - congratulations! Randomness is working against you and you're still turning out ahead, so good job

[Dreamlike2]

It just means you're running badly. When you get into spots when you're all in, you haven't been winning as much as expected.

You should note, though, that there are a few known bugs with this graph that can cause your results to be slightly underreported.

Either way there's nothing you can do to influence this graph (unless you believe in animal sacrifices); it's just how things turn out once you're all in. But if you're still beating the game even running this poorly - congratulations! Randomness is working against you and you're still turning out ahead, so good job

Thank you for your answer.
I know I am running badly, because I go mostly all-in on turn leading while the villain has often lower pair or a flushdraw (yeah, the flush) which makes about 10-18% for him.
Unfortunately I got beaten more than 50% after those leading and I would like to share with other users here this experience. I would like to know how the graphs of the other users look like and what can be the reason that I lose most allins, even though having odds of 80-90%.

That I am still beating the game is not really enough when I should win much more money after the odds...

[kraada]

It's certainly better than losing even so. I've seen graphs posted with people at even, above even, below even . . . it's fairly scattered, given that randomness is, well, random.

[JustAnotherForum]

I would like to know how the graphs of the other users look like and what can be the reason that I lose most allins, even though having odds of 80-90%.

1600 hands is not enough to draw ANY conclusions other than lol variance. Now if you are still loosing most allins after, say, 40,000 hands, then maybe you can start to think about maybe posting a poker is rigged thread.

[stevel]

Dreamlike2, welcome to the world of variance! As the previous poster has said, 1600 hands is not even close to being enough hands to get an idea of whether you are a winning player at a particular level. He said 40,000..I say try 100,000! I am a winning player over about 1 million hands, but have had 80,000 hand runs where I have lost.

And remember, you can't do anything about any difference (either way) between the expected-win-line and the actual-win-line. This is where luck, or bad luck comes in and it can last a long time. Over an infinite number of hands the 2 lines should be equal at point-infinity. As mentioned previously, if you are winning despite running bad, as you have, you should be pleased. If you are running well (ie actual won > expected won) and you are are only breaking even, then you should be worried!

[mamoto]

(...)And remember, you can't do anything about any difference (either way) between the expected-win-line and the actual-win-line. This is where luck, or bad luck comes in and it can last a long time. Over an infinite number of hands the 2 lines should be equal at point-infinity.(...)

Ok, now lets take a look at a graph of games played by me:


If the were to meet in an infinite period of time i would be glad. But i really have doubts if the allin ev presented by pt3 is correct...
I'm playing as a shortstack and i noticed two types of situations which give strange moves of the Allin EV line:
Situation 1:
is when i/m going allin with two other players who have bigger stack than me and they are also going allin on a later street...
in that kind of situation pt3 seems to count EV as if i had bigger starting stack that would match their allins!
my ev line goes up faster tha it should be!
Situation 2:
big amount of dead money in the pot...
eg:
PREFLOP
minraise, 3calls, i raise allin with QQ,
1 call of my allin he shows AK
as i'm playing with short stack the amount of dead money already accounts for nearly a half of my stack
so i need as little as 30% chances to win a pot to make my allin ev go up!
If there are two players left in a pot, and the chances split 60:40, either mine or his ev line will go up!
isn't that a mistake?

Could anyone from pt3 staff confirm or deny problems with that kind of situations?

[WhiteRider]

Yes, there are some situations where the current EV calcuations aren't correct - the EV functionality will be getting an overhaul at some point (hopefully before too long) and the calculations will be done at import time and will be as accurate as possible.