Luck adjusted winnings in SNGs

[Parket]

I'm also a bit dumbstruck by reading that Monte-Carlo simulations are used. This makes no sense, not in the least because PT4 already seems to have the probabilities as it is showing them for each street in the HUD when displaying the last hand, unless of course those are also based on MC.

[_dave_]

Yeah the use of inappropriate monte-carlo is just odd, I thought this was like a placeholder method but since it's still here months later who knows.

Good news though I imported last night's hyper husngs and the my C net adjusted line seems to be in line with hem1 almost perfectly now, just the odd 0.1% differences here and there from the monte carlo. I'll write off the first batch as something gone not-quite right with the update and continue to import more.

[Yogi Rob]

Why use Monte Carlo simulations?

I've added enumerated preflop simulation for holdem unless it's required in the calculator for huge ranges (in which case the range selection is monte-carlo'd) or for randoms. Needs some alpha testing. You'll see it shortly.

In the worse case scenario there would be two opponents all in pre flop (including hero) so that there are 48 unknown cards. With 5 cards to come, that's 48 choose 5 = 1,712,304 possible outcomes. That's a small number especially when there are open source hand evaluators than can do 142,779,680 hands per second. So perhaps you should be enumerating all possibilities.

That 142M hps simulator is great but it uses a whopping 128M of memory.

Plus, there's no random number generation so the hands per second would be greater than when using monte carlo. How many simulations are you using for the monte carlo calculations? If it's more than 1,712,304 I will be disappointed.

1,712,304 for a preflop HvsH scenario is correct.

Monte carlo should only really be used preflop when it's range vs range - having a large range of hands dramatically increases the number of possible outcomes. In PT4, there are absolutely no range vs range calculations when it comes to calculating EV or luck adjusted winnings.

Just fyi, we are doing highly optimized range vs range. Take a look in the calculator. Hand Vs Range, Range Vs Range, Hand vs Range vs Range, Range vs Range vs Range are all super fast.

There should be no difference in the result of the calculation. The algorithms should be calculating the same thing. Just as I'd expect my bb/100 to be the same in HEM as in PT4, my luck adjusted winnings should be the same.
Coming up with a novel way to do luck adjusted calculations is certainly not trivial. You would need to be an incredibly good mathematician to do so. If you really do believe that you have a superior algorithm, please do publish your findings. It's really quite necessary that you do this - it would be a worthless statistic without knowing its exact calculations. You can see that HEMs luck adjusted line comes under a lot of scrutiny (as shown by the 1000+ post topic on 2+2), don't expect any less scrutiny for your method.

The debate is mainly about which hands with side pots qualify for all-in EV. I am absolutely not an expert in math or statistics - but these decisions were made by some people who held in very high esteem in the poker community. If there is an obvious discrepancy between what we're doing and what HEM has we'll take a look. We might be able to explain it or if it's a bug on our side, we'll fix it.

All of this is very much appreciated.

[Voyeurism]

As of the latest beta (v4.01.11 beta) this still does not appear to be working correctly. Should it be?

[WhiteRider]

Yes, it should. Without seeing the hand history for the tournament it's hard to say what the result should be - what do you think is wrong with that tournament?

[Zangeeph]

In the worse case scenario there would be two opponents all in pre flop (including hero) so that there are 48 unknown cards. With 5 cards to come, that's 48 choose 5 = 1,712,304 possible outcomes. That's a small number especially when there are open source hand evaluators than can do 142,779,680 hands per second. So perhaps you should be enumerating all possibilities.

That 142M hps simulator is great but it uses a whopping 128M of memory.

It's not 1997 anymore - for the same price PT3 costs, I can purchase 16GB of RAM. 128MB is a truly insignificant amount of memory. I will easily have over 100,000 all in hands in my database. If each one of those takes a second to calculate, that's 27 hours. I think that's too long, and my database is only going to get bigger. I'd rather PT4 use an extra 128 MB of memory and be 100 times faster (take 16 minutes) than be very conservative with memory use and take more than an entire day to go through my database. There's actually someone in that topic claiming to get 450,0000,000+ h/s. So before you claim your hand evaluator is highly optimized, realize that your evaluator is laughably slow compared to the best out there.

The debate is mainly about which hands with side pots qualify for all-in EV. I am absolutely not an expert in math or statistics - but these decisions were made by some people who held in very high esteem in the poker community. If there is an obvious discrepancy between what we're doing and what HEM has we'll take a look. We might be able to explain it or if it's a bug on our side, we'll fix it.

With regards to how it works with side pots, it's the same as cash hands EV calculations - the same rules apply.

[Zangeeph]

Actually, I've just realized something. The speed of the hand evaluator could be the cause of the slow import speeds for everybody. I recently imported a lot of hands at a rate of 3 hands/s. That's absurdly slow, but according to my very rough calculations it actually makes perfect sense considering the painfully slow hand evaluator.

Each tournament is about 33 hands long with 6 players. Therefore there's almost always going to be at least 5 pre flop all ins where we see another caller (since 5 players must be eliminated). Lets double that number for good measure (estimation at its finest...) to make 10 all ins pre flop and hence 10 all in EV calculations to be made. On my machine the hand evaluator does 2758222 hands per second. Since we need 48 choose 5 = 1712304 to calculate an all in, that's 0.620799921 seconds to calculate a preflop race. With 10 races, that's 6.2 seconds. 33 hands for 6.2 seconds is 5 hands per second.

So my very rough calculation arrives at 5 hands per second, not too far away from the actual 3 seconds. I would like to take the time to count exactly how many EV calculations were done but I'm not sure how to do that. Now, most people play cash where there are probably 50 times less pre flop all ins. However, I'm pretty sure that this could be the bottleneck that everybody's seeing. Is there a way to disable EV calculations to test my theory?

I do have an SSD so no hard drive to slow me down. Random fact of the day: 128MB is a very small amount of memory , it's not even 1% of 16GB which I can buy for the same price as PT3.

[lostinadream2]

There seems to be a problem with the ADJ winnings in my PT4 database as well. I created an alias and now the ADJ winnings are just staying the same as the actual amount won/loss. So apparently I'm running perfectly average. Also I play exclusively husngs. Its also extremely annoying that once you've made an alias that you cannot now click individually on each username/site like you can in HEM - apparently when I'm playing and importing hands I'm playing with exactly the same username on every site ^^... being my main alias. Lastly, I don't understand why everytime I click on 'edit tourney' that a pop-up saying 'auto detect' appears. I always click 'ok' and it does absolutely nothing as far as I can tell.

[kraada]

lostinadream:

Try highlighting all of the tournaments in that edit results window and clicking the Auto Detect button and let me know if that helps for you.

[lostinadream2]

I tried selecting all of the tournaments and the 'auto detect' thing and it did absolutely nothing which is great as it took hours for 5k tourneys. The luck adj winnings is just not calculating. It sounds weird but the luck adj winnings were calculating ( even though they were wrong) before I made a main alias and now it seems the luck adj winnings haven't calculated since.