by zutnop » Thu Dec 18, 2008 7:11 am
Would you be so kind and explain a little how you calculate Expted, Actual and Difference? Is it based on all the streets before all-in or only the street when all-in happens or a mixed solution (this seems to be the case here)?
A long post with some random mumbling is coming up. I'm a newbie in the equity calculation subject. Probably somebody with more experience should help. Of course there might be math errors in my calculations.
Let's take the following hand:
Holdem Luck says I have 60.1% equity on flop, expected $6, actual $17.45, difference $11.45.
Whatever I do, I come up with different numbers.
So is there a single answer to question "What is my Expected, Actual and Difference profit values for this hand?" Is it somehow agreed over the HEM, PokerEV and other solutions, what would the correct answer be? Or does it depend from which angle you look at it?
Full Tilt Poker Game #9511584480: Table Leigon (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - $30 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 17:40:53 ET - 2008/12/15
Seat 1: kenpro111 ($33.65)
Seat 2: Wugget09 ($105.40)
Seat 3: pushbutton07 ($12)
Seat 4: zutnop ($176.30)
Seat 5: spugru ($229.35)
Seat 6: morklis ($118.95)
zutnop posts the small blind of $0.50
spugru posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zutnop [Th Ts]
morklis calls $1
kenpro111 folds
Wugget09 folds
pushbutton07 calls $1
zutnop raises to $6
spugru folds
morklis calls $5
pushbutton07 calls $5
*** FLOP *** [6c 7s 7c]
zutnop bets $13
morklis folds
pushbutton07 calls $6, and is all in
zutnop shows [Th Ts]
pushbutton07 shows [5c 3c]
Uncalled bet of $7 returned to zutnop
*** TURN *** [6c 7s 7c] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [6c 7s 7c 2s] [5d]
zutnop shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
pushbutton07 shows two pair, Sevens and Fives
zutnop wins the pot ($29.45) with two pair, Tens and Sevens
pushbutton07 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31 | Rake $1.55
Board: [6c 7s 7c 2s 5d]
Seat 1: kenpro111 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Wugget09 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: pushbutton07 (button) showed [5c 3c] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Fives
Seat 4: zutnop (small blind) showed [Th Ts] and won ($29.45) with two pair, Tens and Sevens
Seat 5: spugru (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: morklis folded on the Flop
1) If you would only calculate only all-in street action value then as a player I would know "When I risk that much money in this street, how much of the whole pot should I win on average and how it has actually worked out in my hands". Simplest approach but if you run badly on the streets before all-in, then your luck graph does not indicate that.
All-in happens on flop where I risk $6 to win a pot of $29.45 (after rake is taken) with equity of 60.1%.
(29.45 * 0.601) - 6 = my expected profit on the flop is $11.7 each time I do that.
This time with this flop action I won 29.45 - 6 = $23.45, difference $11.75.
Expected and Actual values are quite different from Holdem Luck values but the error in difference is quite small. So I gather that in the expected, actual and difference fields you calculate the profit for whole hand.
2) If you would calculate expected profit for all the streets, where some money goes into the pot, separately, then as a player I would know "how lucky was I in each street".
For example, preflop I risk $6 to win the money that goes in on flop, total of ~$18, so $18 * 0.789 - $6 = expected flop action profit $8.2.
On flop I risk another $6 to win another ~$11.45 means expected flop profit of 11.45 * 0.601 - $6 = expected flop profit $0.9.
So my total weighted preflop + flop expected profit in this hand would be something like $9.1, the actual profit is $17,45, so the difference is $8,35.
Here the Difference is already quite different from Holdem Luck, 8.35 vs. 11.45.
I think that this approach would help
3) So if you would deduct the previous street bets from your profit, but you do not include the previous street equity into expected calculation then you would get closer to the current Holdem Luck solution?
I guess this solution is very misleading if a player wants to estimate if he is playing correctly or not.
Let's picture a hand
HERO AdAc
VILLIAN 8d6c
VILLIAN BET $10
HERO RAISE TO $35
VILLIAN CALL $25
FLOP As9h5h
VILLIAN BET $64
HERO CALL $64
TURN 7d
VILLIAN BET $1 and is ALL-IN
HERO CALL $1 and is ALL-IN
RIVER Ks
VILLIAN has straight and wins $197
HERE has top set and looses -$100
Are my next sentences correct?
Does Holdem Luck then find that my all-in on the turn has 2,3% equity, Expected (197 * 0.023 - $100) = -95,469, Actual -$100, Difference -$4,5. So the hand would indicate that I was expected to loose a lot, I lost almost the same amount I was expected to and I run almost neutral, maybe a little bit bad. While actually I was expected to make significant amount of money preflop and flop when 99% of the money went in and the huge turn suck out says I RUN HORRIBLY, not neutral.