Application: HoldemLuck/TourneyLuck v0.20 (Updated:2/28/10)

[zutnop]

And a simple hand like this somehow works perfectly ok, even though it doesn't have anybody "all-in", only capped:

Full Tilt Poker Game #9547804546: Table Millis (6 max) - $1/$2 - $60 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 19:27:08 ET - 2008/12/17
Seat 1: ItsOK_JusShipIT ($60)
Seat 2: Blowed Up ($117)
Seat 3: mikeface3 ($221.75)
Seat 4: nuvi ($49.95)
Seat 5: zutnop ($366.95)
Seat 6: NickPoker ($448.55)
nuvi posts the small blind of $1
zutnop posts the big blind of $2
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zutnop [Jc Jh]
NickPoker folds
ItsOK_JusShipIT raises to $6
Blowed Up folds
mikeface3 folds
nuvi has 15 seconds left to act
nuvi folds
zutnop raises to $19
ItsOK_JusShipIT has 15 seconds left to act
ItsOK_JusShipIT calls $13
*** FLOP *** [5h 8s Qh]
zutnop has 15 seconds left to act
zutnop bets $26
ItsOK_JusShipIT raises to $41, and is capped
zutnop calls $15, and is capped
ItsOK_JusShipIT shows [5d 5c]
zutnop shows [Jc Jh]
mikeface3 has been disconnected
*** TURN *** [5h 8s Qh] [8c]
*** RIVER *** [5h 8s Qh 8c] [Jd]
ItsOK_JusShipIT shows a full house, Fives full of Eights
zutnop shows a full house, Jacks full of Eights
zutnop wins the pot ($118) with a full house, Jacks full of Eights
mikeface3 has reconnected
ItsOK_JusShipIT adds $60
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $121 | Rake $3
Board: [5h 8s Qh 8c Jd]
Seat 1: ItsOK_JusShipIT showed [5d 5c] and lost with a full house, Fives full of Eights
Seat 2: Blowed Up didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: mikeface3 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: nuvi (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 5: zutnop (big blind) showed [Jc Jh] and won ($118) with a full house, Jacks full of Eights
Seat 6: NickPoker didn't bet (folded)

[advis0r]

zutnop: are the cap games on fulltilt always that good?

alonalbert: can you provide a zip package too? or use http://nsis.sourceforge.net/ (which i think is extractable)

[zutnop]

Would you be so kind and explain a little how you calculate Expted, Actual and Difference? Is it based on all the streets before all-in or only the street when all-in happens or a mixed solution (this seems to be the case here)?

A long post with some random mumbling is coming up. I'm a newbie in the equity calculation subject. Probably somebody with more experience should help. Of course there might be math errors in my calculations.

Let's take the following hand:
Holdem Luck says I have 60.1% equity on flop, expected $6, actual $17.45, difference $11.45.
Whatever I do, I come up with different numbers.

So is there a single answer to question "What is my Expected, Actual and Difference profit values for this hand?" Is it somehow agreed over the HEM, PokerEV and other solutions, what would the correct answer be? Or does it depend from which angle you look at it?

Full Tilt Poker Game #9511584480: Table Leigon (6 max) - $0.50/$1 - $30 Cap No Limit Hold'em - 17:40:53 ET - 2008/12/15
Seat 1: kenpro111 ($33.65)
Seat 2: Wugget09 ($105.40)
Seat 3: pushbutton07 ($12)
Seat 4: zutnop ($176.30)
Seat 5: spugru ($229.35)
Seat 6: morklis ($118.95)
zutnop posts the small blind of $0.50
spugru posts the big blind of $1
The button is in seat #3
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to zutnop [Th Ts]
morklis calls $1
kenpro111 folds
Wugget09 folds
pushbutton07 calls $1
zutnop raises to $6
spugru folds
morklis calls $5
pushbutton07 calls $5
*** FLOP *** [6c 7s 7c]
zutnop bets $13
morklis folds
pushbutton07 calls $6, and is all in
zutnop shows [Th Ts]
pushbutton07 shows [5c 3c]
Uncalled bet of $7 returned to zutnop
*** TURN *** [6c 7s 7c] [2s]
*** RIVER *** [6c 7s 7c 2s] [5d]
zutnop shows two pair, Tens and Sevens
pushbutton07 shows two pair, Sevens and Fives
zutnop wins the pot ($29.45) with two pair, Tens and Sevens
pushbutton07 is sitting out
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $31 | Rake $1.55
Board: [6c 7s 7c 2s 5d]
Seat 1: kenpro111 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Wugget09 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: pushbutton07 (button) showed [5c 3c] and lost with two pair, Sevens and Fives
Seat 4: zutnop (small blind) showed [Th Ts] and won ($29.45) with two pair, Tens and Sevens
Seat 5: spugru (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 6: morklis folded on the Flop



1) If you would only calculate only all-in street action value then as a player I would know "When I risk that much money in this street, how much of the whole pot should I win on average and how it has actually worked out in my hands". Simplest approach but if you run badly on the streets before all-in, then your luck graph does not indicate that.

All-in happens on flop where I risk $6 to win a pot of $29.45 (after rake is taken) with equity of 60.1%.
(29.45 * 0.601) - 6 = my expected profit on the flop is $11.7 each time I do that.
This time with this flop action I won 29.45 - 6 = $23.45, difference $11.75.

Expected and Actual values are quite different from Holdem Luck values but the error in difference is quite small. So I gather that in the expected, actual and difference fields you calculate the profit for whole hand.


2) If you would calculate expected profit for all the streets, where some money goes into the pot, separately, then as a player I would know "how lucky was I in each street".

For example, preflop I risk $6 to win the money that goes in on flop, total of ~$18, so $18 * 0.789 - $6 = expected flop action profit $8.2.
On flop I risk another $6 to win another ~$11.45 means expected flop profit of 11.45 * 0.601 - $6 = expected flop profit $0.9.

So my total weighted preflop + flop expected profit in this hand would be something like $9.1, the actual profit is $17,45, so the difference is $8,35.

Here the Difference is already quite different from Holdem Luck, 8.35 vs. 11.45.

I think that this approach would help



3) So if you would deduct the previous street bets from your profit, but you do not include the previous street equity into expected calculation then you would get closer to the current Holdem Luck solution?

I guess this solution is very misleading if a player wants to estimate if he is playing correctly or not.

Let's picture a hand
HERO AdAc
VILLIAN 8d6c

VILLIAN BET $10
HERO RAISE TO $35
VILLIAN CALL $25

FLOP As9h5h

VILLIAN BET $64
HERO CALL $64

TURN 7d

VILLIAN BET $1 and is ALL-IN
HERO CALL $1 and is ALL-IN

RIVER Ks

VILLIAN has straight and wins $197
HERE has top set and looses -$100

Are my next sentences correct?

Does Holdem Luck then find that my all-in on the turn has 2,3% equity, Expected (197 * 0.023 - $100) = -95,469, Actual -$100, Difference -$4,5. So the hand would indicate that I was expected to loose a lot, I lost almost the same amount I was expected to and I run almost neutral, maybe a little bit bad. While actually I was expected to make significant amount of money preflop and flop when 99% of the money went in and the huge turn suck out says I RUN HORRIBLY, not neutral.

[zutnop]

[quote="advis0r"]zutnop: are the cap games on fulltilt always that good? [quote]

No no, they are awful, please don't play them !

(and the last hand had history, otherwise it would really look donkish)

[nsrafk]

Code: Select all

Exception while processing hand 14360. Exception:
System.NullReferenceException: Objektreferencen er ikke indstillet til en forekomst af et objekt.
   ved HoldemLuck.Hand.CreatePots(IRakeCalculator rakeCalculator) i C:\Projects\HoldemLuck\Hand.cs:linje 101
   ved HoldemLuck.Hand..ctor(Int32 id, DateTime datePlayed, Int32 heroId, String flop, String turn, String river, IRakeCalculator rakeCalculator, IEnumerable`1 players) i C:\Projects\HoldemLuck\Hand.cs:linje 79
   ved HoldemLuck.PotFinderForm.ProcessHand(Int32 handId, DateTime datePlayed, Int32 heroId, String flop, String turn, String river, IRakeCalculator calculator, IEnumerable`1 players) i C:\Projects\HoldemLuck\PotFinderForm.cs:linje 192
Hand History:
Full Tilt Poker Game #6918781075: Table Fuller (deep) - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 21:03:47 ET - 2008/06/21
Seat 1: Busted Flush 7 (0)
Seat 2: Ramiraise (0)
Seat 3: DominantSpeciez (0)
Seat 4: egeipw (0)
Seat 5: budyboy1 (0)
Seat 7: El-Maverick1 (0)
Seat 8: nsrafk (0)
Seat 9: AlizeNike777 (0)
nsrafk posts the big blind of $0.50
El-Maverick1 posts the small blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #Seat 5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
DominantSpeciez has returned
Seat 1: Busted Flush 7 ($28.35)
Seat 2: Ramiraise ($157.25)
Seat 3: DominantSpeciez ($121.80), is sitting out
Seat 4: egeipw ($53)
Seat 5: budyboy1 ($50)
Seat 7: El-Maverick1 ($49.50)
Seat 8: nsrafk ($52.30)
Seat 9: AlizeNike777 ($24)
DominantSpeciez is sitting out
El-Maverick1 has 5 seconds left to act
El-Maverick1 is sitting out
El-Maverick1 has timed out
nsrafk posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #5
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nsrafk [4c Ks]
T1LTER sits down
AlizeNike777 folds
T1LTER adds $100
Busted Flush 7 folds
Ramiraise calls $0.50
egeipw folds
budyboy1 folds
nsrafk checks
*** FLOP *** [Js 8c 7s]
nsrafk checks
Ramiraise has 15 seconds left to act
Ramiraise checks
*** TURN *** [Js 8c 7s] [Ts]
nsrafk checks
Ramiraise checks
*** RIVER *** [Js 8c 7s Ts] [8d]
nsrafk checks
Ramiraise has 15 seconds left to act
Ramiraise checks
*** SHOW DOWN ***
nsrafk shows [4c Ks] a pair of Eights
Ramiraise shows [Qc Ad] a pair of Eights
Ramiraise wins the pot ($0.95) with a pair of Eights
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $1 | Rake $0.05
Board: [Js 8c 7s Ts 8d]
Seat 1: Busted Flush 7 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Ramiraise showed [Qc Ad] and won ($0.95) with a pair of Eights
Seat 3: DominantSpeciez is sitting out
Seat 4: egeipw didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: budyboy1 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: El-Maverick1 (small blind) is sitting out
Seat 8: nsrafk (big blind) showed [4c Ks] and lost with a pair of Eights
Seat 9: AlizeNike777 didn't bet (folded)

Exception while processing hand 22244. Exception:
System.IndexOutOfRangeException: Indekset lå uden for arrayets grænser.
   ved HoldemLuck.PotFinderForm.GetCard(Int16 card) i C:\Projects\HoldemLuck\PotFinderForm.cs:linje 255
   ved HoldemLuck.PotFinderForm.FindNewPots() i C:\Projects\HoldemLuck\PotFinderForm.cs:linje 126
Hand History:
Full Tilt Poker Game #6903507589: Table Hinson - $0.25/$0.50 - No Limit Hold'em - 18:00:15 ET - 2008/06/20
Seat 1: Triton1975 (0)
Seat 2: Zeuspi (0)
Seat 3: pokerhan (0)
Seat 4: Sandman_1880 (0)
Seat 5: CubanMark74 (0)
Seat 6: WinchRounder (0)
Seat 7: pokertoker 77 (0)
Seat 8: nsrafk (0)
Seat 9: CertifiedPro (0)
nsrafk posts the big blind of $0.50
pokertoker 77 posts the small blind of $0.25
The button is in seat #Seat 6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Zeuspi has reconnected
Seat 1: Triton1975 ($7.50)
Seat 2: Zeuspi ($40.45)
Seat 3: pokerhan ($10)
Seat 4: Sandman_1880 ($91.25)
Seat 5: CubanMark74 ($9.50)
Seat 6: WinchRounder ($192.45)
Seat 7: pokertoker 77 ($41.05)
Seat 8: nsrafk ($53.75)
Seat 9: CertifiedPro ($50)
pokertoker 77 posts the small blind of $0.25
nsrafk posts the big blind of $0.50
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to nsrafk [6c 4c]
Triton1975 folds
Zeuspi folds
pokerhan folds
Sandman_1880 folds
CubanMark74 folds
WinchRounder folds
pokertoker 77 folds
Uncalled bet of $0.25 returned to nsrafk
nsrafk mucks
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $0.50 | Rake $0
Seat 1: Triton1975 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 2: Zeuspi didn't bet (folded)
Seat 3: pokerhan didn't bet (folded)
Seat 4: Sandman_1880 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 5: CubanMark74 didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: WinchRounder (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 7: pokertoker 77 (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: nsrafk (big blind) collected ($0.50), mucked
Seat 9: CertifiedPro is sitting out

Data Row:
  id_hand = '22244'
  id_player = '2268'
  holecard_1 = '0'
  holecard_2 = '0'
  amt_before = '0,00'
  amt_bet_ttl = '0,00'
  amt_bet_p = '0,00'
  amt_bet_f = '0,00'
  amt_bet_t = '0,00'
  enum_folded = 'P'
  amt_won = '0,00'
  date_played = '20-06-2008 22:00:15'
  card_1 = '0'
  card_2 = '0'
  card_3 = '0'
  card_4 = '0'
  card_5 = '0'
  site_name = 'Full Tilt'
  amt_bb = '0,50'


Still no graph ? Soon2give up @ me.

[sookmctourie]

Could someone write a post here giving a clear understanding on how to interpret the ev graph. I have an intuitive sense of its value, but I'm trying to understand for example how to combine the three graph lines into a whole picture. What is it telling me about my hands and results. Is the expected values based on the ev formula? What is the value of having the third "difference" line, and what does it tell me. I'm not looking specifically for answers to just these questions but anything that would help me to make the most use of this information. It would be greatly appreciated.

1. First, the program is only evaluating hands where you are all in on the turn or earlier.
2. the program only evaluate the action on the street where you get all in. Example, you have $100. you get $10 in preflop, $60 in on the flop and your last $30 on the turn. Only the turn is evaluated and only the $30 bet on the turn is part of the EV calculation. (author, please confirm). Your preflop and flop decision have EV but this program is not tracking the EV on those streets.
3. you are making good decisions, the green EV line will go up.
4. the blue line is your actual results. If your opponent sucks out, this line while go down while the green line goes up. If you suckout this line will go up while the green line goes down.
5. If you are unlucky over the measured period, the red "difference between EV and actual results" will be below zero. If you are lucky this line will be above zero.

Perfect! Thank you funkyj

Art

[sookmctourie]

[*] the program only evaluate the action on the street where you get all in. Example, you have $100. you get $10 in preflop, $60 in on the flop and your last $30 on the turn. Only the turn is evaluated and only the $30 bet on the turn is part of the EV calculation. (author, please confirm).

Actually that's incorrect. Te entire pot is taken into account. I understand this is somewhat controversial but my opinion is that all chips bet into the pot prior and including the all in action should be considered. After all, when you call on the flop with a flush draw against pot odds, you are looking for the implied odds when hitting your draw and getting the money in on the turn.

The rest of the explanation is spot on.

I agree. I'm glad you set it up this way

[sookmctourie]

I'm getting a blank black screen when I double click on a hand. I have the latest version, but it was the same for the previous version. Thanks again alonalbert. It's a great app.

Art

Hmm, any chance of posting a screenshot somewhere? You can email me also. My email was posted in a previous post in this thread.

I've installed ver 4, and I'm still getting the this blank screen

[vihola]

I'm running version 0.4 amd everything is going fine except couple of hands cause error: "Exception while processing hand 20411. Exception:System.ArgumentException: There must be two pocket cards." What's the problem with these hands?

[alonalbert]

alonalbert: can you provide a zip package too? or use http://nsis.sourceforge.net/ (which i think is extractable)

I'll put a zip there also.