Application: HoldemLuck/TourneyLuck v0.20 (Updated:2/28/10)

[alonalbert]

Would you be so kind and explain a little how you calculate Expted, Actual and Difference? Is it based on all the streets before all-in or only the street when all-in happens or a mixed solution (this seems to be the case here)?

Wow, that is a long post. Didn't follow all of it but here's what I made HoldemLuck in fact do:

I look at the entire pot when the chips went in. In you example hand, this happened on the flop and the pot was $29.45 not including rake ($19 preflop + $12 on flop - $1.55 rake)
Your equity heads up is 60.1% so you can expect 60.1% of $29.45 of pot money to be yours. Subtract your share (bet) of $12 so your expected winnings come to:

$29.45 * 0.601 - $12 = $5.70 (yes, I had a rounding bug which I now fixed)

You actually ended up winning the entire pot of $29.45 for a new actual profit of $17.45. The difference is $11.75

HoldemLuck isn't concerned with how well you played or in other words, how much you risked to win a pot, just with the results. You went in as a dog and sucked out or vice versa and how big was the pot you won/lost as a result.

[zutnop]

I look at the entire pot when the chips went in.

If you have time, then please read through my section 3), as you know confirmed my assumption how the calculation is done, then the results might actually be pretty misleading.

This AA vs 88 hand would be a huge suckout (running very bad) and correctly played in real life.
But HoldemLuck would display this hand as extremly badly played (expected to loose your whole stack) hand where you run almost neutral. So it's not like it's not understanding that you had bad luck but instead it's the other way around, the graph is saying you ran neutral but you played it extremly bad. So players must NOT look at the Expected line and figure if they play good or bad ...

I understand that to get this hand as a huge cooler, one would have to have weighted street scores or street by street equity and that's a very complex thing. But the easier solution, to FORGET all the previous street bets and only calculate the street where all-in happend would be much better in my mind. This AA vs 88 hand would appear as an OK call (the turn call is a little bit positive EV) and it would indicate that you run a littlbe bit under expectations on turn (almost neutral). Of course it would still miss the fact that you were sucked out big time. But at least it's not trying to convince you that it was your fault .

[Bambi]

Looks nice, 2bad the filter's do not work at all.

[alonalbert]

Still no graph ? Soon2give up @ me.

Fixed this one too. Will post a new version soon.
There is a bug in PT3 that stores the hands in the DB with all players having a stack of zero: amt_before == 0

I'll post a bug report later.

[alonalbert]

I've installed ver 4, and I'm still getting the this blank screen

OK, I think I fixed it. Check next version.

[alonalbert]

I'm running version 0.4 amd everything is going fine except couple of hands cause error: "Exception while processing hand 20411. Exception:System.ArgumentException: There must be two pocket cards." What's the problem with these hands?

Post the hand history from the log file and I'll take a look.

[alonalbert]

I look at the entire pot when the chips went in.

If you have time, then please read through my section 3), as you know confirmed my assumption how the calculation is done, then the results might actually be pretty misleading.

This AA vs 88 hand would be a huge suckout (running very bad) and correctly played in real life.
But HoldemLuck would display this hand as extremly badly played (expected to loose your whole stack) hand where you run almost neutral. So it's not like it's not understanding that you had bad luck but instead it's the other way around, the graph is saying you ran neutral but you played it extremly bad. So players must NOT look at the Expected line and figure if they play good or bad ...

I understand that to get this hand as a huge cooler, one would have to have weighted street scores or street by street equity and that's a very complex thing. But the easier solution, to FORGET all the previous street bets and only calculate the street where all-in happend would be much better in my mind. This AA vs 88 hand would appear as an OK call (the turn call is a little bit positive EV) and it would indicate that you run a littlbe bit under expectations on turn (almost neutral). Of course it would still miss the fact that you were sucked out big time. But at least it's not trying to convince you that it was your fault .

PokerEv already calculates luck this way. You can try it out, it's pretty good actually. Does a lot more than my sorry attempt
One of the reasons I wrote this app is because I disagree with the way PokerEv author (and you as well) see things. I don't use this graph to judge if I played good or bad. Just how my luck ran AFTER the money went in and the cards flipped over.

If Villain sucked out with money still behind (even $1) and we went all in when I was already the underdog, yes, it's still a bad beat but not what I'm interested in. There are many aspects to luck in poker, this only tries to measure one simple aspect of it.

[alonalbert]

Looks nice, 2bad the filter's do not work at all.

Started to work on filters.

I'm thinking of the following filters:
* Dates
* Stakes
* Sites

Any other ideas?

[vihola]

I'm running version 0.4 amd everything is going fine except couple of hands cause error: "Exception while processing hand 20411. Exception:System.ArgumentException: There must be two pocket cards." What's the problem with these hands?

Post the hand history from the log file and I'll take a look.

Hand History:
BossMedia Game #1347426511: Table TH Mini 17 - $0.12/$0.25 - No Limit Hold'em - 22:02:50 - 2008/12/03
Seat 1: ReTeK46 ($5.92)
Seat 5: Ib3atU ($33.98)
Seat 3: VVinCenT ($5.24)
Seat 4: Cyb0rlab ($19.65)
Seat 2: m.chang1 ($20.27)
ReTeK46 posts the big blind of $0.25
Ib3atU posts the small blind of $0.12
Cyb0rlab is the button
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Ib3atU [Ks Kd]
m.chang1 raises $1.00
VVinCenT calls $1.00
Cyb0rlab folds
Ib3atU raises $5.00
ReTeK46 goes all-in with $5.92
m.chang1 calls $5.92
VVinCenT folds
Ib3atU calls $5.92
*** FLOP *** [4d Tc 2s]
Ib3atU goes all-in with $28.06
m.chang1 goes all-in with $14.35
*** TURN *** [4d Tc 2s] [Jh]
*** RIVER *** [4d Tc 2s Jh] [8s]
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $45.11 | Rake $2.35
Board: [4d Tc 2s Jh 8s]
ReTeK46 won ($0.00), mucks
m.chang1 won ($45.11), showed [Th Td]
VVinCenT won ($0.00), mucks
Cyb0rlab won ($0.00), mucks
Ib3atU won ($0.00), showed [Ks Kd]

[kraada]

PokerEv already calculates luck this way. You can try it out, it's pretty good actually.

PokerEV doesn't function with PTt3, only PTv2.