Application: HoldemLuck/TourneyLuck v0.20 (Updated:2/28/10)

[SQQTED]

Your absolutely right about jumping stakes. I am not concerned about how dramatic the graph changes at the end (the difference is now over $1,000 if were to update that graph), only some kind of gauge that you could look at if the divergence in your expected outcome keeps increasing. If this is over weeks and tens of thousand hands, this has to be a certain number of standard deviations from the norm. What percentile of times is this going to happen, or something along that lines? I just would like have something to gauge how likely this is going happen, or if I should be seriously worried of foul play. (i.e your diffence diverges at the same rate for 100k all ins, and might be 99.99 percentile and close to impossible with random outcomes) I realize I am being very vague, but I am hoping someone is thinking along the lines and can word it better, or even better, answer my question.

Thanks,

SQQTED

[SQQTED]

This should put things in perspective, I switched the graph to BB. With an exact downswing of 2,816 BB between Expected and Actual outcomes. How likely is this over about 160 all ins? I am sure this is not all the information needed to give an accurate answer, but this is what I am trying to get at.

http://sitebuilder.verizon.net/trellix/ ... _page.html

[alonalbert]

This should put things in perspective, I switched the graph to BB. With an exact downswing of 2,816 BB between Expected and Actual outcomes. How likely is this over about 160 all ins? I am sure this is not all the information needed to give an accurate answer, but this is what I am trying to get at.

http://sitebuilder.verizon.net/trellix/ ... _page.html

Link is broken.

I think PokerEv has a Bell Graph that shows you how likely you are to be where you are. At least I think that what it does. PokerEv works with PT2 though, not PT3.

[TonyB73]

Its unlikely, but not impossible.

I've just had a downswing of about 1,300BB below EV over less than 100 all-ins, so you're worse than that but not by a huge amount.

[Kamawoop]

I've been playing poker on and off for 3 years. It's class myself as semi-pro; it provides a significant proportion of my income. That said, my total income is not that great and whilst I feel my game has improved over the last year, this has not been reflected in my results.

So, I decided to toy around with Holdem Luck. I’m 4,135 BB down from EV over 2797 allin hands. Firstly I wondered if there was some glitch in the software that skewed the results; I’ve tried a few of these tools and there usually is. However, after careful examination I could find not significant problems in this case.

So, I decided to check my EV month per month for the past 3 years. First 27 months I’m down on 15 up on 12. I’ve found my problem: Every single month, for the past 9 months, I’ve been down; sometimes massively so. Grrrr!

[kraada]

Consider how hard it is to grind any profit though and you should take pride in the fact that you can consistently grind out a profit when you're running so terribly!

(And besides, eventually your luck will change

[SQQTED]

corrected link:

http://mysite.verizon.net/res10ot8d/id9.html

Thank you for the responses, Just looking for some tool to quantify how random the outcomes are, and whether they fall into a reasonable range. It is very hard for me to believe that there is no foul play involved when I see a constant downward sloping Difference line. They just don't happen like that to the upside, at least for me.

This is the most important stat (even though I can't control it), since it is such a big percentage of my bottom line.

[Kamawoop]

It is very hard for me to believe that there is no foul play involved when I see a constant downward sloping Difference line

Assuming that the application is working correctly (which I can't vouch for, but I have found no obvious glaring errors in the results); I can't see how a lower than expected EV can be any indication of foul play.

For every hand were one player is down from EV, the victor is correspondingly up. I suppose you could argue that the rooms are full of shills, turning the profits over to their employees, the card rooms, but IMO that is one of the most ridiculous of all poker site conspiracy theories.

[SQQTED]

Outcomes can be calculated in terms of how many standard deviations from the norm they are. This can give you a gauge as to how extraordinary your results are. This is what I would like to see.

The bigger your sample size, the more credibility that something is not quite right.

[Kamawoop]

As this is a thread for discussing the merits and workings of HoldemLuck, I would feel more comfortable discussing the probabilities of running bad if you would start a new thread, SQQTED.

However there is an inherent bias in discussions, in that those who are running close to par are far less likely to be posting about it. Possibly thousands have run their results through HoldemLuck, I expect most are close to expected value. It is inevitable that some people will be running hot, or cold (those are the people, such as myself who will post to express our grievances to the world). It would show that poker was somehow fiddled if everyone was getting EV.